Sunday, February 3, 2013

Super Bowl predictions

On Friday we spent the last two minutes of each class trying out some probability and wrote down some guesses to some Super Bowl questions.  I'll repost the questions and try to back them up with actual math to see if I can be more accurate. 

1. Who will win?  49ers or Ravens                 MY PICK: RAVENS

logic: Ravens points per game this year 24.9, Niners ppg 24.8.  That's close, hmm, mathematically I'm going Ravens, but it's pretty much 50/50 (that's a ratio, not a fraction)

2. Will the National Anthem be over or under 2 minutes and 15 seconds? 

logic: Youtubed some videos, seems the longest an anthem has been thus far is about 2 minutes, I don't see this one being the longest ever, so I'm going UNDER. 

3. What will be the total points scored?    MY ANSWER: 50

logic: I searched average points scored in super bowl and it seems it is 54, but based on the teams ppg earlier I 'll say 50.  This would be a good place to talk about range and see how close I could be.  My probability of getting this one exactly right is not great. 

4. Will the MVP be an offensive or defensive player?  MY ANSWER: OFFENSE

logic: It seems 50/50, but researching past MVPs it breaks down as such:   Offensive: 38 Defensive: 8 ST: 1


5. Coin Toss, Heads or Tails? 

logic: this should eventually average out, let's check the history.  Heads: 25, Tails: 21  Seems that it should be tails to try to get it to 50/50, it's also been heads four years in a row.  I'm going TAILS.  Some students also said you can win free pizza for guessing that on a pizza site. 

Bonus: This is a weird question, what color top will Beyonce have on for the halftime show? 

logic: Who knows?  I'm going to put her name in an image search and see which one has the highest frequency (vocab word!)  and go with it.  SILVER is my official guess. 

Should be fun to see how well we predict these.  See you Monday! 

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